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China:Researcher urges cautious yuan move
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PublishDate:
2005-08-24 11:19:00
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-- The Chinese Government is still operating a de facto fixed exchange rate regime and will move only slowly toward a more liberalized system, a top government researcher said Tuesday.

“We are still only one step away from a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar regime,” said He Fan, assistant director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Because 90 percent of China’s trade was conducted in U.S. dollars, and because its financial markets remain underdeveloped, China needed to proceed gradually on the path toward currency liberalization, He said.

“We have to be very cautious and do it step by step,” He said.

One of the purposes of the July 21 revaluation and move to a managed float of the yuan was to enable China to regain monetary policy independence, but He said this goal would be achieved only gradually.

He said he was convinced that China’s economy was slowing because import growth had decelerated, consumer price inflation was low, and profits had fallen to what he called “worrying” levels.

Because the yuan was still more or less fixed to the U.S. dollar, he saw little scope for the central bank to respond to slower growth using monetary policy.

Instead, he advocated a more proactive fiscal policy, under which the government could spend more on fighting pollution, improving the health system and reducing income inequalities.

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