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ReturnChen Yiqing：Silk industry has an optimistic look into the future(1)
Author：
admin
PublishDate：
2006-01-20 14:11:00
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540
(Chen Yiqing, famous industry veteran, expert of China Silk Association and Ministry of Commerce, former vice-president of China National Silk Imp. & Exp. Corporation)
Dated on Dec. 15,2005
Quality and quality of autumn cocoons both dropped sharply in some regions of China this year. Such situation fueled the imbalance between silk supply and demand. People are much uncertain about the later price trend and then feel panic about any price rises and falls. Today, current supply and demand situation and price trend is more concerning.
1.The silk supply and demand situation in 2005
⑴Export volume up 11.76 pct through Jan. to Oct.
Latest figures from Customs showed that China’s natural silk (including long and short fiber) exports rose by 11.76 pct to reach 80,375 tons. Among them, silkworm silk (excluding silk worm cocoons) up 10.71 pct to reach 24760 tons; Natural silk fabric up 19.85 % to reach 19,032 tons. Natural silk garments and madeups up 8.75 pct to reach 36,575 tons.
Silk exports to leading destination markets, which accounted for 75 pct of total export to the world, rose by 6.99 pct in the first ten months of 2005, said China Chamber of Commerce for Imp.& Exp. of Textiles.
On the contrary, cocoon and natural silk imports totaled 6,810 tons, down 41.69 pct. Among them, silkworm cocoon imports converted into silk totaled 58 tons, down by 10.91 tons; silkworm silk imports totaled 4028 tons, down by 55.46 pct; mulberry silk fabric 2,724 tons, up by 5.99 pct.
So it led to a trade surplus of 73565 tons of natural silk, up 16 pct after eliminating the quantity of bale-folded cocoons converted into waste silk imported from Middle Asia.
⑵ Silkworm cocoon output increases slightly and its overall quality shows some decrease.
The quantity and quality of spring cocoons in some producing regions have shown a small increase, however, the total cocoon output in the country is predicted to be roughly the same or a bit higher than last year due primarily to the affection of disastrous weather, plant diseases and insect pests. I made the estimation that the increase is about 7-8 pct. Meantime, the quantity and quality of autumn cocoons dropped sharply due to the widespread plant diseases and insect pests in main producing regions led by disastrous weather, environment pollution and poison by agricultural chemicals. The autumn cocoon output decrease is predicted to be less than 5 pct in the country due to the output increase in middle and western China.
⑶The silk supply gap to approach about 25 pct this year
Given these data about the exports of the first ten months, total silk exports is estimated to reach 97,000 tons around the year, up 8 pct; the net silk exports, which equals export volume minus import volume, is estimated to reach 88,500 tons, up 12 pct; total silk consumption including mulberry and tussah long and short fiber is estimated to reach 1,180,000 tons and shows a limited increase compared to the silk supply of last year. Meantime, the cocoon production couldn't meet the needs since last year, the supply gap has left early this year.
According to the normal materials consumption speed, I have discovered the point that the silk supply gap reaches about 25 pct this year.
Dated on Dec. 15,2005
Quality and quality of autumn cocoons both dropped sharply in some regions of China this year. Such situation fueled the imbalance between silk supply and demand. People are much uncertain about the later price trend and then feel panic about any price rises and falls. Today, current supply and demand situation and price trend is more concerning.
1.The silk supply and demand situation in 2005
⑴Export volume up 11.76 pct through Jan. to Oct.
Latest figures from Customs showed that China’s natural silk (including long and short fiber) exports rose by 11.76 pct to reach 80,375 tons. Among them, silkworm silk (excluding silk worm cocoons) up 10.71 pct to reach 24760 tons; Natural silk fabric up 19.85 % to reach 19,032 tons. Natural silk garments and madeups up 8.75 pct to reach 36,575 tons.
Silk exports to leading destination markets, which accounted for 75 pct of total export to the world, rose by 6.99 pct in the first ten months of 2005, said China Chamber of Commerce for Imp.& Exp. of Textiles.
On the contrary, cocoon and natural silk imports totaled 6,810 tons, down 41.69 pct. Among them, silkworm cocoon imports converted into silk totaled 58 tons, down by 10.91 tons; silkworm silk imports totaled 4028 tons, down by 55.46 pct; mulberry silk fabric 2,724 tons, up by 5.99 pct.
So it led to a trade surplus of 73565 tons of natural silk, up 16 pct after eliminating the quantity of bale-folded cocoons converted into waste silk imported from Middle Asia.
⑵ Silkworm cocoon output increases slightly and its overall quality shows some decrease.
The quantity and quality of spring cocoons in some producing regions have shown a small increase, however, the total cocoon output in the country is predicted to be roughly the same or a bit higher than last year due primarily to the affection of disastrous weather, plant diseases and insect pests. I made the estimation that the increase is about 7-8 pct. Meantime, the quantity and quality of autumn cocoons dropped sharply due to the widespread plant diseases and insect pests in main producing regions led by disastrous weather, environment pollution and poison by agricultural chemicals. The autumn cocoon output decrease is predicted to be less than 5 pct in the country due to the output increase in middle and western China.
⑶The silk supply gap to approach about 25 pct this year
Given these data about the exports of the first ten months, total silk exports is estimated to reach 97,000 tons around the year, up 8 pct; the net silk exports, which equals export volume minus import volume, is estimated to reach 88,500 tons, up 12 pct; total silk consumption including mulberry and tussah long and short fiber is estimated to reach 1,180,000 tons and shows a limited increase compared to the silk supply of last year. Meantime, the cocoon production couldn't meet the needs since last year, the supply gap has left early this year.
According to the normal materials consumption speed, I have discovered the point that the silk supply gap reaches about 25 pct this year.
