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ReturnSURESH MEHTA ANALYSIS(15)--Review on silk market(Dated on Jan. 24,2006)
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PublishDate：
2006-01-26 08:38:00
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dear friends
wish u all a happy spring festival
raw silk - a global shakedown
the trends of raw silk yarn is shocking for all this year , the high
prices have shocked and awed the global silk community . however what
will be the consequences ?
i think this is the right oppurtunity for other silk producing
countries to establish a threshold in the world silk market by providing cheaper good quality yarn . They have to create a strategy to streamline cocoon production and ultimately silk yarn , the high prevailing prices of chinese silk yarn will safeguard them this year and will also prove to be a softening factor for silk buyers around the world .indian buyers will certainly welcome this move and india being the world biggest importer can absorb all these cargo also .
Efforts are visible in these countries to raise the production and this is the best situation to do it because they may not get another
oppurtunity in near future .the scenerio will make them permanent alternative suppliers. it remains to be seen what the interest levels of the government of these countries are to develop their silk market and beyond.
raw silk - the indian perspective
the indian industry is in a state of shock unable to absorb the new
quotes from china. the business volume locally has trickled down to almost
below 3 tonnes per day in bangalore , a drop of more than 50% . the
silk fabrics factories looking out for alternate fabric production as the high levels of raw silk is making them unworkable. the trading
importing companies who contributed to the import volume are out of the picture now as they cannot import at these prices and survive . stagnation is visible around the corner and saturation of price is very much a reality. in contrast to the chinese situation where we can see short supply may match the low demand from india but how will this affect the price , i think a correction is required now on the chinese side after the hong kong fair to stimulate interest and improve flow of cargo . i can foresee a total standstill from the indian side after the chinese holidays where in the orders will be nil or almost neglible till a definite trend is visible .
in case the indian import stop totally then there is no alternative
but a correction in prices in the chinese side . of course we cannot
expect a downtrend till the next crop but certainly correction in between will help the market to buy medium volumes .
Fabrics
after an upward correction the fabric movement has stopped and is
stagnating with low volumes and low demand all over india. this may weaken the price levels and is already visible with rumours abound that cargo from across the border has arrived in delhi market , and if this happens can witness a drop of about 50 cents per meter which will stop the import orders totally . however apart from this the situation looks steady and after the chinese holidays we may see what movement it acquires.it is better to wait and watch now for fabrics
b rgds
suresh mehta
wish u all a happy spring festival
raw silk - a global shakedown
the trends of raw silk yarn is shocking for all this year , the high
prices have shocked and awed the global silk community . however what
will be the consequences ?
i think this is the right oppurtunity for other silk producing
countries to establish a threshold in the world silk market by providing cheaper good quality yarn . They have to create a strategy to streamline cocoon production and ultimately silk yarn , the high prevailing prices of chinese silk yarn will safeguard them this year and will also prove to be a softening factor for silk buyers around the world .indian buyers will certainly welcome this move and india being the world biggest importer can absorb all these cargo also .
Efforts are visible in these countries to raise the production and this is the best situation to do it because they may not get another
oppurtunity in near future .the scenerio will make them permanent alternative suppliers. it remains to be seen what the interest levels of the government of these countries are to develop their silk market and beyond.
raw silk - the indian perspective
the indian industry is in a state of shock unable to absorb the new
quotes from china. the business volume locally has trickled down to almost
below 3 tonnes per day in bangalore , a drop of more than 50% . the
silk fabrics factories looking out for alternate fabric production as the high levels of raw silk is making them unworkable. the trading
importing companies who contributed to the import volume are out of the picture now as they cannot import at these prices and survive . stagnation is visible around the corner and saturation of price is very much a reality. in contrast to the chinese situation where we can see short supply may match the low demand from india but how will this affect the price , i think a correction is required now on the chinese side after the hong kong fair to stimulate interest and improve flow of cargo . i can foresee a total standstill from the indian side after the chinese holidays where in the orders will be nil or almost neglible till a definite trend is visible .
in case the indian import stop totally then there is no alternative
but a correction in prices in the chinese side . of course we cannot
expect a downtrend till the next crop but certainly correction in between will help the market to buy medium volumes .
Fabrics
after an upward correction the fabric movement has stopped and is
stagnating with low volumes and low demand all over india. this may weaken the price levels and is already visible with rumours abound that cargo from across the border has arrived in delhi market , and if this happens can witness a drop of about 50 cents per meter which will stop the import orders totally . however apart from this the situation looks steady and after the chinese holidays we may see what movement it acquires.it is better to wait and watch now for fabrics
b rgds
suresh mehta
