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the hongkong memoirs

I think this was the dullest silk fair ever seen , with hardly about
15-20 indian buyers having no real buying ideas due to the high prices , it was more or less reduced to a meeting affair rather than any meaningful business discussions or orders.

The facilities for the visitors were pathetic as usual and i am
surprised why there is no thought being given on this aspect by the
organisers. it is time now for the indian side to organise the fair rather the chinese. boiling down to the business deals there was interest shown only in tussah silk and some fabrics as all other items have become unworkable.
there were few deals finally transacted in tussah and 12101 .

Raw silk is on the path of overkill and the upward trend is killing
itself. however with arrival of alternative cargo in india from other silk producing countries the weaving factories have a relief as it is lower priced and the quality is surprisingly good. The high prices of raw silk has generated interest worldwide and the efforts are visible now but the real effects can be seen in the latter half of 2006 where in india will have more than 3 more supplying sources for silk yarn, meanwhile the first half of 2006 belongs to the chinese silk yarn,

The indian January import data shows slowing down of imports
considerably from china and taking into account the future supply/demand situation in china i think the raw silk will peak in april and will reach the highest point of pricing ever seen before. in a way it is good as it will also initiate the downtrend after that , with new crops coming out and low demand will bring the correction into motion. it is very important for that to happen before the weaving community entirely changes the product line and the consequences of this may be real disastrous for indian silk fabric production.

finally it is the indian financial budget on feb 28th which will make
the real impact on any real business ideas and the future. however not much is expected for silk but there may be some surprises in store , who knows ?

it is better to anlayse the pattern for dupion , tussah and fabrics
after the indian budget as now everything depends on it with rumours
abound about import duty reduction in silk which however looks unlikely. but the budget will certainly bring in the right sentiments for decision making and it is now in the hands of indian importers to support the upward trend or stay away for some time to initiate the downtrend and bring the corrections into play.

suresh mehta

(note: the above opinion are strictly the personal opinion of Suresh Mehta, any decisions made on this article will be solely at their own risk and Suresh Mehta will be not be responsible and liable under any conditions whatsoever.)